The UK has experienced record numbers of immigrants in 2022: over 745,000 arrivals. Although the figure fell to 672,000 to the year ending June 2023, immigration was making big headlines in both the media and by the government. With a general election due before the end of 2024, and the Conservatives lagging significantly behind the opposition in opinion polls, the record figures have been used to show a section of the electorate why the government is making certain policy decisions. In May 2023, the government announced that from 2024 it will ban those international students studying taught Master’s degrees from bringing dependants. In December 2023, it introduced several measures that will not only affect immigrants but also British individuals and businesses.
In discussing the record figures, the official line failed to acknowledge three central themes, specifically the causes of the significant rise, its temporary nature and very importantly its benefits to the UK. Focusing first on the reasons, the markedly high numbers in the top-three immigration categories can be attributed to a combination of geopolitical events, economic factors and societal needs. Specifically, in the year ending September 2022, 287,047 individuals entered through safe and legal (humanitarian) routes, followed by 112,431 in the year ending September 2023. Most of those arrivals were Ukrainians followed by Hong Kong BN(O) visa holders. While the UK welcomed a significant number of Ukrainians (200,000), it must be noted that this figure represents only 2 per cent of those who left Ukraine for European countries.
In addition to the humanitarian route, work visas accounted for 248,284 in the year ending September 2022 and 335,447 in year ending June 2023. Of the latter figure, over 40 per cent of the visas granted were Health and Care Worker visas covering doctors, nurses as well as carers who were critically needed by the NHS and the elderly. Lastly, the sponsored study visas accounted for 476,389 in the year ending September 2022 and 486,107 in the year to September 2023. The rise in international student figures, which represents a significant increase from pre-pandemic numbers, has been driven by the government’s International Education Strategy which set an ambition to have 600,000 international students studying in the UK, a target that was first met in the year 2020–2021.
Looking at the main reasons for immigration to the UK, it becomes apparent that in many instances, the nature of immigration tends to be temporary. For instance, a survey of a sample of Ukrainians residing in the UK indicated that nearly 50 per cent intend to leave the UK once the war ends. This is similarly the case for international students, who typically return to their home countries upon completing their courses. While some students choose to apply for the Graduate route to extend their stay in the UK, initial evidence suggests that only 20 per cent of students whose leave expired in 2022 transitioned to the Graduate route after completing their studies.
Furthermore, it is likely that the majority of those who switch to the Graduate route will return home once their leave expires. Consequently, we find ourselves in a transitional phase where the initial applicants to the Graduate route remain in the UK, while a growing number of graduates are transitioning to the route. The first wave of Graduate route holders is anticipated to have their leave expire towards the end of 2023, or more likely in 2024. It is after this juncture that the true impact of the Graduate route, beyond the initial temporary surge, will start to become evident.
Lastly, given the government changes introduced in May 2023 to the rules around dependants, clear evidence is emerging of a sharp decline in international students coming to the UK in January 2024, with potentially up to 70 per cent fewer students joining in comparison with January 2023. This points to a scenario where 2022 and 2023 might represent an exceptional surge before figures decline, potentially sharply, then stabilise.
In addition to the reasons and temporary nature of this surge, what are often disregarded are the benefits of migrants to the UK economy and population. First, immigration is addressing labour shortages in key sectors in the economy. More than half (58 per cent) of London’s hospitality workforce are non-UK citizens. A survey of a sample of Ukrainians less than a year after they arrived in the UK shows that 61 per cent were either employed or self-employed in the UK, including in hospitality (23 per cent), information technology and communication (10 per cent) and manufacturing (9 per cent). Only 12 per cent of BNO visa holders reported being unemployed and seeking work. Furthermore, 24 per cent of all new joiners across the NHS (excluding dentistry and community pharmacy) are international and Professor Martin Green, Chief Executive of Care England, said immigration was ‘saving the social care sector’ from collapse.
International students contribute significantly to the UK economy to the tune of a huge £41.9 billion by the 2021/22 academic year intake. These students not only make a valuable impact on the economy but also play a crucial role in addressing labour shortages, with an estimated 24.6 per cent engaging in work, even though their hours are restricted to a maximum of 20 per week while pursuing their studies.
Contextualizing immigration figures is critical if we want to present a balanced narrative on immigration that eases concerns within both local and immigrant communities. This is especially pertinent after the ‘stop the boats’ campaign that dominated public discourse in 2023.
Early evidence suggests that government policies introduced in 2023 may significantly reduce immigration figures in the coming months and possibly years, including in areas of the labour market where immigration is needed most. Subsequently, persisting with these policies means that the various sectors that have benefited from the upsurge in immigration over the past few years will likely experience adverse effects. This could lead to additional challenges in the NHS, compromised elderly care services, and businesses struggling to stay operational due to staff shortages.
However, an alternative approach could address the structural issues that are withholding the UK’s potential, rather than solely focus on immigration. This would include building more homes, renovating the NHS, strengthening higher education and creating future technologies. Immigrants can play a pivotal role in achieving these objectives at every stage. There is no denying that immigration figures need to be optimised, and that the government should prioritise developing the skill sets and productivity of the local labour force, but we must not overlook the invaluable role played by immigrants in supporting the prosperity of the UK.
Laila is a Senior Lecturer in Strategic Marketing at Worcester Business School.
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